Uneven Recovery in Transport Services Following COVID-19 Global Value Chain Evidence from 2018 to 2024

Abstract

Post-COVID-19 recovery in the transport sector may follow divergent trajectories when measured by gross trade values versus participation in international production networks. This study analyses four transport-related activities using Asian Development Bank (ADB) data spanning 2018–2024 and validates three comparable activities against OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) indicators through 2022. The empirical dataset comprises 43 sector–source–year observations and integrates nominal recovery indices, participation-share measures, symmetric decomposition, and sensitivity checks using alternative baseline years. In 2020, ADB air transport records a 46.51% decline in global value chain (GVC) trade value, while its participation share increases by 2.40 percentage points, indicating that contraction in levels can coincide with relative gains in participation.

By 2024, all four activities surpass their 2019 GVC trade values; however, water transport and transport-supporting activities display reduced participation shares, implying that scale effects in gross trade can offset weakening participation. Comparisons with TiVA corroborate the initial contraction's magnitude while refining inferences about recovery timing and the evolution of participation shares. Moreover, baseline selection materially affects inferred “return” dates, underscoring the importance of methodological transparency. The results motivate paired reporting of recovery in both monetary terms (trade values) and structural terms (participation measures). The analysis also indicates that global aggregates alone cannot identify COVID-19’s distinct causal contribution or infer operational resilience, and that additional, context-specific evidence is needed to inform African sourcing decisions.